Welcome to the weekly adidas Blue Ribbon NCAA Tournament projection for ESPNET SportsZone. Check this site each week on Monday for the latest forecast on this year's 64-team bracket. Using current power ratings and up-to-the-minute results, we'll suggest where your team could be headed in March.Projected NIT field
Many schools have played themselves up or down in the bracket -- or out of the field altogether -- since our first projected bracket last week. Others are in fairly fixed positions.
Many schools have played themselves up or down in the bracket--or out of the field altogether--since our first projected bracket on Feb. 12. Others are in fairly fixed positions.
The following pairings are based solely on what the NCAA men's basketball committee could do "if the season ended today."
Southeast regional
Again, top-ranked Kentucky is nowhere to be found in its natural region.
The Wildcats cannot play in the Southeast, as that region's semifinals and
finals are scheduled for Rupp Arena.
Happily grabbing the Southeast's top seed, however, is Connecticut. Though we move the Huskies out of the East this week after losing at Georgetown, a Sunday win over Big East rival Villanova -- completing a season sweep -- confirmed their position as a No. 1 seed.
Duke continues to enhance its position in the at-large field. Despite a 7-7 ACC record, Sunday's homecourt pounding of defending national champion UCLA may be the game that cements a bid for the Blue Devils.
Two interesting teams in this week's Southeast bracket are Texas Tech and Wisconsin-Green Bay. You might wonder why these schools are not placed in the Midwest Region; more specifically, sub-regional sites at Dallas and Milwaukee. The answer is the Selection Committee attempts to avoid "home crowds" for the opponents of the top four seeds in each region, and it would be a penalty for those higher seeds in the Midwest to slot the Red Raiders and Phoenix as lower seeded "home teams."
The Committee also seeks to avoid regular season rematches. However, an 8-9 game between Duke and Temple is unavoidable in our projected bracket this week because of the rule prohibiting more than one team per conference at any single sub-regional site.
The Southeast champion plays the West champion in the Final Four on March 30 at the Meadowlands.
Southeast bracket
Thursday, March 14, RCA Dome, Indianapolis
(6) Iowa vs. (11) California
(3) North Carolina vs. (14) Drexel
(7) Wisconsin-Green Bay vs. (10) Georgia
(2) Cincinnati vs. (15) UNC-Greensboro
Friday, March 15, Orlando Arena, Orlando
(1) Connecticut vs. (16) Southeast Louisiana
(8) Duke vs. (9) Temple
(5) Texas Tech vs. (12) Illinois
(4) Iowa State vs. (13) Davidson
West regional
Either Kansas or UConn could be the No. 1 seed in the West, with Purdue
closing fast on a possible top seed and Villanova fading for all the wrong
reasons. The nod this week goes to Kansas, however, as Connecticut was
forced to go west a year ago while the Jayhawks stayed in their natural
Midwest Region.
True western teams to remain in that region are UCLA (No. 3), Utah (No. 4, down one slot from last week), Stanford (No. 8), Montana State (No. 14) and Long Beach State (No. 15). UCLA gets the nod to stay west over Arizona because of its lead in the Pac-10 race.
Two teams joining the West Region party are Marquette and Providence, which must play on alternate dates from sub-regionals they are hosting in the Midwest and East, respectively.
The West champion plays the Southeast champion in the Final Four on March 30 at the Meadowlands.
West bracket
Thursday, March 14, University Arena, Albuquerque
(6) Marquette vs. (11) Kansas State
(3) UCLA vs. (14) Montana State
(7) Indiana vs. (10) George Washington
(2) Georgia Tech vs. (15) Long Beach State
Friday, March 15, University Activity Center, Tempe
(1) Kansas vs. (16) Jackson State
(8) Stanford vs. (9) Boston College
(5) Memphis vs. (12) Providence
(4) Utah vs. (13) Iona
East regional
One loss does not ruin a season, at least in the eyes of the Selection
Committee. Despite falling at home to hard-charging George Washington,
Massachusetts remains a comfortable No. 1 seed. However, committee
chairman Bob Frederick said last week that no extra effort would be made to
avoid a UMass-Kentucky rematch until the national championship game.
So, these two great teams can meet in the Final Four semifinals, a scenario which would force the committee to balance the East and Midwest brackets in other ways. And who is to say UMass would not prefer to open NCAA play in nearby Providence?
An even more interesting case study is Villanova, which is playing its final three regular season games without star Kerry Kittles. How far can the formerly No. 1 seeded Wildcats drop in the bracket if they continue losing? It says here that the committee will take the Kittles situation into account and drop the Wildcats to no worse than a No. 3 seed. This week, having only lost to UConn in recent memory, Villanova slides to a No. 2 position.
The projected 3-14 contest between Penn State and Mount St. Mary's remains unchanged from last week.
The East champion plays the Midwest champion in the Final Four on March 30 at the Meadowlands.
East bracket
Thursday, March 14, Providence Civic Center, Providence
(1) Massachusetts vs. (16) Coppin State
(8) Santa Clara vs. (9) Tulane
(5) Syracuse vs. (12) South Carolina
(4) Wake Forest vs. (13) Princeton
Friday, March 15, Richmond Coliseum, Richmond
(6) Virginia Tech vs. (11) Texas
(3) Penn State vs. (14) Mount St. Mary's
(7) Arkansas vs. (10) Eastern Michigan
(2) Villanova vs. (15) Colgate
Midwest regional
What more can be said about top-ranked Kentucky? If the Wildcats run the
table in the SEC, they will be everyone's NCAA tournament favorite come
Selection Sunday. UMass passed the symbolic torch with its weekend defeat.
The projected 8-9 game between Michigan and Maryland has its share of intrigue. We don't ever recall a season in which so many NCAA-caliber teams from major conferences are at or below .500 in league play. It will be interesting to see how the committee treats schools like the Wolverines, Terps and others.
This ongoing scramble in the middle of the major conferences may be settled in upcoming conference tournaments. If not, the committee could seek to expand its recent trend of rewarding the regular season champions of the so-called "mid-major" conferences. No doubt it is this specific debate which will decide the final at-large selections come March 10th.
The Midwest champion plays the East champion in the Final Four on March 30 at the Meadowlands.
Midwest bracket
Thursday, March 14, Reunion Arena, Dallas
(1) Kentucky vs. (16) Texas-San Antonio
(8) Michigan vs. (9) Maryland
(5) Louisville vs. (12) Virginia Commonwealth
(4) Georgetown vs. (13) Arkansas-Little Rock
Friday, March 15, Bradley Center, Milwaukee
(6) Mississippi State vs. (11) Oklahoma
(3) Arizona vs. (14) Murray State
(7) New Mexico vs. (10) Bradley
(2) Purdue vs. (15) Valparaiso
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